This episode explores Hamas's attack against Israel and President Joe Biden's speech in support of Israel.
References
Reuters - How Hamas Surprised Israel
FDR Letter
Sumner Welles Response
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
Wednesday, July 12, 2023
July 11, 2023 - A Familiar but Uncomfortable Approach to Trans Issues
This episode explores the evolution of Democratic presidents (and presidential hopefuls) on their views of same-sex marriage from 1996 to 2012 to predict Democratic candidate positions on Trans rights in the upcoming 2024 election.
References
The Defense of Marriage Act
% of LGBTQ Voters in Electorate
Barack Obama Evolution on Same-Sex Marriage
9/26/07 Democratic Primary Debate
2008 Democratic Primary Voting
September 23, 2007 Polling - Hillary 41.8%, Obama 23%, Edwards 15%
Obama supports same-sex marriage
Thursday, March 9, 2023
March 9 2023 - Tucker Carlson's Jan 6 Footage
This episode focuses on Tucker Carlson's episode that focused on the 40000 hours of Jan 6 footage given to his show by House Leader Kevin McCarthy
References
Stewart Rhoades Seditious Conspiracy
Politifact Tucker Carlson & QAnon Shaman
National Guard Troops Before Jan 6
Friday, February 17, 2023
Friday February 17, 2023 - Maslow's Hierarchy, You People, & Hitler! In-Review
Today's episode explores why I haven't made podcasts in four months, a movie review of Jonah Hill's Netflix movie You People, and author A.N. Wilson comparing Prince Harry's book Spare to Adolph Hitler's Mein Kampf.
References
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
A.N. Wilson's Hitler and Harry
Tuesday, November 8, 2022
Those Bloody Midterms
2022 Midterm Projections
These projections are based off of polling date from 2004-2020. The discussion of "ALL" refers to modeling based on both General Election data and Midterm Election data. "Midterm Only" refers to modeling based solely on Midterm races. I've done modeling for various factors: VEP, Dem Votes, Rep Votes, Dem % of Vote, Rep % of Vote, Dem chance of winning, and Rep chance of winning.
Variables considered: Year, State, Candidate Name, Candidate Sex, Candidate Race, Election Type, % of vote choice for candidates in polls, Presidential Party in power, Presidential approve/disapprove ratings, Presidential approval ratings for Dems, Reps, and Inds, Congressional party approval/disapproval ratings, Party best to solve top issue, Generic congressional ballot, and Dem/Rep voting enthusiasm.
Modeling was competed through XGBoost with 2000 trees.
Voting Eligible Population (VEP) ALL
Voting Eligible Population (VEP) Midterms Only
Democratic Votes ALL
Democratic Votes Midterms Only
Republican Votes ALL
Republican Votes Midterms Only
Democrat Percentage of Vote ALL
Democrat Percentage of Vote Midterms Only
Republican Percentage of Vote ALL
Republican Percentage of Vote Midterms Only
Democrat Win ALL
Democrats Win Midterm Only
Republican Win ALL
Republican Win Midterms Only
Midterm Results ALL
Midterm Results Midterm Projections Only
Now I've never done this type of analysis before and the data is assuredly flawed, but here's what I think.
1. I tend to trust projections using ALL election data more than Only Midterm data because I think VEP will be closer to General elections. As you see above, only Wisconsin has a VEP over 50% and I think all of these races will be above 60%, which is in line with ALL projections.
2. Races I am most confident in:
a) Florida - Rubio is going to crush. That's a red state now.
b) North Carolina - Beasley has run an odd campaign and Budd seems like a very safe white guy in a red state.
c) Iowa - There's little Iowa data to use, which is why Grassley's numbers are down in projections. There's nothing to indicate that he won't win by 10+ points.
d) Nevada - While the race has tightened, I believe Cortez-Masto will carry NV.
e) Utah - I know, I know, I know. McMullin isn't a Democrat, but there isn't any data to work with there anyway. Lee wins easily.
3. Races I have a "good feeling" about. More gambler-esque than data scientist here:
f) Arizona - Kelly is an incumbent and is a good candidate. Masters is a crappy candidate. Maybe I'm wrong and Kari Lake will drag Masters across the line, but I like Kelly here.
g) Ohio - Ohio is a red state. Whatever the poll says for the Republican candidate in Ohio, just add three points. Vance is a hypocrite and a crappy candidate, but he's avoided embarrassing himself and is red in the right state.
4) Races that hold the Senate in the Balance and I have no idea on:
h) Georgia - Herschel Walker might be the worst Senate candidate in my lifetime. But unless VEP is over 70%, which is possible, I still see him carrying Georgia.
i) Wisconsin - Johnson is an embarrassment of a Senator. He was part of the fake elector plot for January 6th. How that doesn't automatically disqualify him is beyond me. And because of that, I'm calling for the upset! Mandela Barnes for the win!
j) Pennsylvania - Whatever aides let Fetterman on the debate stage should never work in politics again. He's been much best on the trail in the last week, but that debate performance was 100% pure cringe. But, I think Oz hurt himself enough by stepping on the abortion landmine. I'm going with Fetterman.
Here's my map:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022
October 4, 2022 - Herschel Walker, White House Messaging, and Trump's Michigan Rally
Today's episode explores Herschel Walker's abortion scandal, terrible gaffes made by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump's increasingly authoritarian discourse at his October 1, 2022 Michigan Rally.
References
Herschel Walker Abortion Scandal
White House Messaging
Forbes Student Loan Forgiveness
North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan
Trump's Rally
2020 General Election Michigan
Michigan Court of Appeals Rejects Trump Lawsuit
Supreme Court Expands Gun Rights
Monday, September 5, 2022
September 5, 2022 - News, Losing Faith in Humanity, and Biden's Soul Speech
This episode recaps news from the week, which includes the hearing on whether a special master will be appointed for the documents found in the FBI Mar-a-lago raid, the UN's report on Human Rights abuses against Uyghurs in China, Mary Peltola's upset win in Alaska, and updates about the new COVID-19 booster. The second segment focuses on writing challenges when you lose faith in humanity and the final segment analyzes President Joe Biden's Battle for the Soul of the Nation Speech.
References
News
UN Statement on Human Rights Abuses Against Uyghurs in China
AP Explainer on Uyghurs Crisis
Mary Peltola Wins Alaska House Seat
Biden's Soul Speech
Ohio Republicans Fight for Trump's Approval
Friday, August 12, 2022
August 12, 2022 - Joe Biden's Great Week & The FBI "Raid" of Mar-a-Lago
The first segment explores Joe Biden's best week as president. The Biden administration scored wins with the killing of Ayman al-Zawahir, providing weapons to Ukraine, passing the burn pit bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The second segment examines what we know and don't know about the FBI search of Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence. This includes exploring the federal judge that approved the warrant, the conservative response to the search, and Merrick Garland's Aug 11, 2022 press conference.
References
Joe Biden Week
New York Times - Ayman al-Zawahri
New York Times - How CIA Tracked Zawahri
ABC News - Hellfire Flying Ginsu
Newsweek - US provides High Mobility Artillary Rocket Systems to Ukraine
New York Times The Daily - Ukraine June 13, 2022
Alondra Nelson White House Office of Science & Technology Policy CHIPS statement
New York Times - Senate Passes Burn Pit Bill
Paul Krugman - Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
New York Times - Biden on a Roll
The FBI "Raid" of Mar-a-Lago
New York Times - FBI Searches Mar-a-Lago
Vox - Republican Responses to FBI Search
National Review - FBI Raid about Capitol Riot not Classified Documents
Politico - Judge Bruce Reinhart Signed Off on Search Warrant
Politico - Hillary's Emails different than Trump's Search Warrant
New York Times - Man Killed in Standoff
Thursday, July 28, 2022
July 28, 2022 - Recapping Day 7 Jan 6 Committee - Part 2
This episode explores July 21, 2022 news, corrections from the previous episode, exploring the December 18, 2020 meeting, Trump's tweets between December 19, 2020 and January 6, 2021, and the role of social media in politics, which includes testimony from the anonymous Twitter employee and Stephen Ayres.
References
Today's News
Democrats Don't Want Biden in 2024
Corrections/Additions
Gallup Media Use and Evaluation
January 6th Hearing Day 7
New York Times The Daily - Andrew Goldstein
Republicans Don't Believe Joe Biden Won
Trump Tweets - December 19, 2020 - January 7, 2021
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October 10, 2023 - War in Israel & Palestine & White Guys
Episode This episode explores Hamas's attack against Israel and President Joe Biden's speech in support of Israel. References Interc...
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Episode This episode explores Hamas's attack against Israel and President Joe Biden's speech in support of Israel. References Interc...
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Podcast This episode explores the evolution of Democratic presidents (and presidential hopefuls) on their views of same-sex marriage from 1...
